Tuesday, November 13, 2007

College Football Rankings Week 5


The BCS uses all sorts of formulas with computers and people rankings as well. Many people think the BCS is wrong and also believe that the voters do not get it right. With this in mind I have got together knowledgeable football fans from across the country with representation of each conference in the polls. The fans come from members of the Fantasy Football Cafe College Sports Forum. These fans watch more football than most of the voters and are extremely knowledgeable. They are allowed to vote however they want, just like if they were a Harris or AP voter. Some vote based on based performance, some on future, some on a combination of those, while others vote based on which team would win on a neutral field. They send me their top 35 and I calculate it to come up with the top 25 and we compare it to the BCS. Here is the BCS week 5 and our Week 5:

BCS

1. LSU
2. Oregon
3. Kansas
4. Oklahoma
5. Missouri
6. West Virginia
7. Ohio State
8. Arizona State
9. Georgia
10. Virginia Tech
11. USC
12. Florida
13. Texas
14. Virginia
15. Clemson
16. Hawaii
17. Boston College
18. Boise State
19. Illinois
20. Tennessee
21. Michigan
22. Cincinnati
23. Kentucky
24. UConn
25. Wisconsin

Rankings

1. LSU
2. Oregon
3. Oklahoma
4. Kansas
5. Missouri
6. West Virginia
7. Georgia
8. Ohio State
9. Arizona State
10. USC
11. Florida
12. Virginia Tech
13. Texas
14. Clemson
15. Virginia
16. Tennessee
17. Boston College
18. Illinois
19. Cincinnati
20. Kentucky
21. Michigan
22. Hawaii
23. Auburn
24. Boise State
25. Wisconsin

This is by far the closest the rankings have been to the BCS this season. With the more games being played the rankings have become a little more a like because the basics seem to be obvious, but there are some minor differences that would be important to the Bowls and National Championship. The difference between Kansas and Oregon in the BCS is not very much and many believe if Kansas wins out they will definitely jump Oregon in the BCS, while that may not happen in these rankings. Kansas does have it's biggest tests coming up and if they can go undefeated I think they will be number 2 in the country.

The other major thing with Bowl implications is Hawaii and Boise States rank. To get into a BCS bowl the Hawaii or BSU would need to get into the top 12 or in the top 16 and is ahead of one of the BCS conference champions. The BCS rankings would most likely have Hawaii in a BCS game if they win out, but by these rankings Hawaii would not see a BCS bowl game. I personally would love to see Hawaii in a bowl game because they would get run off the field by these other teams and it would put in end to their complaining about getting no respect.

Monday, November 12, 2007

This Offseason Very Important for Rays

The Rays have finally unveiled all of their new changes with the uniforms and name change. The Rays front office is hoping to not only change the design of the uniforms, but also the design of the team and the Rays fan base. With all the hype surrounding the new team and the Rays front office wanting a new stadium, this is the most important off season for the Rays franchise.

The Rays showed great offensive promise all of the 2007 campaign and the pitching seemed to get better as the year went on. The Rays had fans excited at the end of the year and it showed at the unveiling of the new uniforms and team name. They had 7,000 people show up in the middle of football season at a park in St. Petersburg to watch a fashion show of Rays players. A couple years ago they may have gotten 700 for something like that.

With all of the changes it has come out in the newspapers that the Rays front office wants to build a new stadium where Al Lang field is now located. The Rays confirmed the report a couple nights ago that they are looking at a $450 million dollar ball park, but will only need about $60 million from the city to have it built. In order for the Rays to get the 60 million needed they will need the voters to turn out and vote for a tax raise to get the stadium built. The Rays stated in the paper today that they want the referendum voted on in November 2008. If the Rays want people to come out and vote, they need to give the fans a reason to be excited and want to vote for the stadium to be built.

For the Rays to get the fans to come out and vote they will need to get people excited and have a reason to want to get a new ball park built. This is the reason that this off season is so important for the Rays. Right now they have the momentum and excitement of the fan base, but if they do not address certain areas of the team and go into next season with the same basic team and do not spend money there will be problems. While fans really need to act like this is only the third year of the franchise they have lumped this organization in with the last and are tired of seeing losing baseball. Fans in the bay are long for a team that is .500 and at least a little competitive. If the Rays organization can make some moves and get this team to .500 by the end of next season I can guarantee that fans will come out and vote yeas for a new stadium. If they do nothing and the team continues the way it has the fans will just believe that it is the same old thing and leave the vote alone.

The Rays know what spots on this team they need to address for the team to be competitive; the bullpen and the starting rotation. There are some key free agents that are available to the Rays that can help both if these areas. The Rays can also address the areas in trade and have some offers out there. Whatever the Rays do they need to make sure they show the fans they are committed and if they do the fans will return the favor come November 2008.

Bucs Sign Keiwan Ratliff, Release Chas Gessner

With Michael Clayton healthy and able to play this weekend against the Falcons, the Bucs cut wide out Chas Gessner from the roster. They Bucs then signed corner back Keiwan Ratliff to the roster to take Gessner's spot. The move makes sense for the Bucs because they lost Torrie Cox for the season last week and had only 4 corners on the roster. Gessner was a special teams contributer and nothing more, so it made sense to add another corner with Clayton returning to the lineup.

Gator fans will remember Ratliff from his time at the University of Florida. Ratliff was the SEC player of the year two times in his career and was an All-American his senior season. He owns the records for most punt return yards (860), and interceptions in a game (3). Ratliff was a second round draft pick for the Bengals in 2004, but was released earlier this year.

Ratliff has played 51 games in his 4 year career and has 102 career tackles, 3 interceptions, and 2 forced fumbles. He had a nice first year returning punts averaging 12.2 yards per return, but struggled in his next two seasons as he was in and out of the position.

Ratliff offers the Bucs some insurance in the secondary position with Brian Kelly and Phillip Buchanon's history of getting injuries. He has played in the league for 4 years so he has game experience. He also gives them a guy who can return punts, which will allow them not to chance Hilliard, Galloway, or Buchanon getting hurt on a punt return. This reminds me of the move the Bucs made last year when they acquired Buchanon off of waivers after he was released for being soft. Buchanon has been a great find for the Bucs and maybe Ratliff needed to be in a cover 2 type of system to succeed like Buchanon.

Heisman Top 5 -- Week 12

My disclaimer as always: The Heisman trophy is given to the best player in the country and that is how I look at the award. The best player may not be on the best team in the country. There are many things that go into being the best player including stats, leadership, and what you mean to your team. Here is my Top 5 starting this week:

Tim Tebow - Quarterback - Florida
Stats - 10 Games 177.1 Rating 67.8 % 2,532 Yards 23 TD 5 INT 718 Rush Yards 19 TD
Last Week: 22-32 304 Yards 2 TD 1 INT 120 Yards Rushing 5 TD
The Gators were without their star wide receiver Percy Harvin for the game which meant they had to lean on Tebow, and he responded. Tebow was the offense against South Carolina and dispelled any rumors that he is not the most important person on that team. Harvin can take a lot of pressure off of Tebow, but he showed in the South Carolina game that he can take the team on his back when he needs to. He has some of the best talent on the field and should be the Heisman front runner right now.

Dennis Dixon - Quarterback - Oregon
Stats: 9 Games 163.1 Rating 67.9% Passing 2,074 Yards 20 TD 3 INT 549 Rush Yards 8 TD
Last Week: IDLE
Dixon got a break this week and got a chance to rest up his ankle so that he can be healthy for a run at the National Championship game. Oregon has a Thursday night game against Arizona coming up and if he goes off like he is capable of on Thursday it will help his Heisman hopes. I think that Dixon will win it because he is a senior and they will be in the National Championship game in my opinion, but I still believe Tebow is the better talent and should get the award.

Mike Hart - Running Back - Michigan
Stats: 8 Games 215 carries 1,188 yards 12 TD
Last Week: DNP Injured
Why is he still here? The game against Wisconsin showed exactly why Hart should still be in the Heisman talk. Had Hart played in the game against Wisconsin than Michigan wins that game in my opinion and are undefeated in the Big 10. No one on the Wolverine team could get anything going on the ground and without a ground game the Wolverines were forced to rely on freshman Quarterback Ryan Mallet to try and win the game through the air. Hart is a great talent and when healthy is one of the best players in the country. His numbers are not what they would be if he was healthy, but without him the Wolverines have no shot against OSU.

Chase Daniel - Quarterback - Missouri
Stats: 10 Games 154.7 Rating 69.4 % 3,306 Yards 26 TD 9 INT 279 Rush Yards 4 TD
Last Week: 27-35 352 Yards 3 TD
Daniel carried Missouri against TAMU over the weekend. He has the Tigers set up for a hug game against Kansas for the Big 12 North Title and a rematch against Oklahoma, who gave them their only loss. Daniel has great athleticism and has a knack to be able to keep his team in any game and dominate the competition that he needs to. If they can beat Kansas and Oklahoma he may vault up this board even more.

Pat White - Quarterback - West Virginia
Stats: 9 Games 157.7 Rating 69% 1,251 11 TD 2 INT 803 Rush Yards 10 TD
Last Week: 16-25 181 Yards 2 TDS 147 Rush Yards 1 TD
White dominated the Louisville Cardinals on Thursday night and won the game for the Mountaineers to make sure that the Big East championship has to go through Morgantown. The Mountaineers should be undefeated and lost to USF without Pat White. While White does have Slaton and Devine on that team, it has been shown that they can win without Slaton, but can't win without White. White is one of the most talented athletes in the country and while he won't be a quarterback in the NFL, he is a great QB in college and has come into his own this year as a passer.

Tebow Show Dominates Gamecocks

The Gators went into Columbia needing a win to have a chance at the SEC East title. The Gators had to play the game without star wide out Percy Harvin because he was in Gainesville with a sinus infection and Migraine headaches. The Gators would need to lean on Tebow to win the game, and he accepted the challenge and dominated South Carolina. Tebow accounted for all 7 of the Gator touchdowns, running for 5 and throwing for 2. His numbers could have been even better as Murphy dropped an easy touchdown pass and James fumbled inside the 10 yard line going in. If there was any doubt that Tebow is the most important part of the team, the South Carolina game put an end to that.

After their run defense being exploited last week against Arkansas the formula to beat the Gamecocks was simple, run the ball. The problem the gators have is that Harvin had been their run game because Kestahn Moore has been inconsistent at best and Brandon James just does not have the experience. Not having Harvin in the game altered the game plan from the start, but the Gators adjusted and Tebow led the way on offense. The Gators managed a running game that was not exclusively Tewbow by using James and Jarred Fayson in running situations. James showed some of the same explosion running the ball that he does on kick returns, but he did put the ball on the turf a couple times, which is the reason that Moore was benched.

The Gator defense came out fired up in the beginning of the game and got a fumble and blocked a punt that both led to touchdowns, which gave the Gators a 14 point lead after only 4 minutes in the first quarter. Brandon Spikes had a great game not only tackling, but in coverage. He tipped 3 passes, one was intercepted, one Cory Boyd made a great catch on, and the final one was knocked down in the end zone. This defense has taken a lot of heat all season, especially with their play on the road, but they came up big in this game at the right times. They did give up some big plays in the passing game with busted coverages, but for the most part they were able to stop the Gamecock offense from staying on the field for sustaining drives.

The Gators needed to win this game to keep their SEC title hopes alive and they came out swinging. They now will have to sit back and hope that Kentucky can beat Georgia and either Kentucky or Vanderbilt can beat Tennessee so that they can go to Atlanta. The Gators finished the SEC season with a 5-3 record. They will finish the season against FAU and FSU at home and then will await a bowl game.

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Florida Live Gameday Thread


Today is a big day not only for the Gators, but for the SEC race. Tennessee takes on Arkansas and Georgia is at home to Auburn. If those two team were to lose today and the Gators beat South Carolina they will be in a great opportunity to win the SEC East. I will be updating the thread throughout the day. Feel free to leave your thoughts on the games.

Friday, November 9, 2007

Ole Ball Coach v. New Ball Coach

The Gators take on the South Carolina Gamecocks tomorrow night at 7:45. What once was a one-sided SEC game for the Gators has become a big time rivalry game ever since former Gator and Gator coach Steve Spurrier took over the reigns at South Carolina. It was started by Spurrier immediately when he cut the number of visitor tickets that would be available for the Gator/Gamecock game in 2006. It was made even worse when the Gators lost the game in Columbia that year. Last year Spurrier was on the visiting sideline for the first time in his life when he brought a tough team into the Swamp. The game was back and forth and the Gators needed to block a last minute field goal to win the game and go to the SEC championship and eventually the National Championship.

This year the game means a lot for both teams once again and none of it has to do with who the coach for either team is. South Carolina has two tough games left on their schedule and if they want to go to a decent bowl they need to win at least one, if no both of them. The Gamecocks have been up and down all season mainly due to a very inconsistent offense. Meanwhile the gators still have a shot at the SEC East crown if they can win this game and get some help from Tennessee and Georgia. While the Gamecocks have been inconsistent on offense the Gators have had the opposite problem, struggling on defense. This is the final SEC game for the Gators, who will finish up with FAU and rival FSU in the final two weeks of the season. They need to finish strong and win this game; sticking it to the ball coach.

South Carolina had a rough game last week not only losing to Arkansas, but also having several key members of the team getting injured. Leading rusher Cory Boyd sprained his shoulder, Strong Safety Emmanuel Cook injured his ankle, and Corner Captain Munerlyn also injured his ankle. Boyd is expected to play, but the other two are questionable and even if they do play they will be limited by their ankle injuries. The injuries would be big blows to the Carolina defense because Munerlyn is their captain and best cover corner, while Cook is the leading tackler on the team. If these two defenders are out the Gator offense will have an even easier time moving the ball down the field.

Those injuries to the secondary hurt even more because it has been the secondary that has been the staple of the defense. South Carolina has the second overall defense in the SEC giving up only 20.8 points per game, but that is the by product of having such a great pass defense. The run defense of the Gamecocks has been absolutely terrible and they are 11th in the SEC in run defense. Last week Arkansas ran all over South Carolina gaining over 400 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, the pass defense is 4th in the SEC and has more interceptions than touchdowns allowed. The loss of Cook will hurt them not only in that secondary, but also stopping the run, thus depleting them in an area that they already are bad in.

While the Gators do not have a running back like Darren McFadden to run against this defense, they do have Percy Harvin. Last week the Gators ran Harvin like he was their running back and he ran for over 100 yards against a good Vanderbilt defense, while still getting over 100 yards in receiving. Harvin and Fayson will be called upon once again to get the ball out of the backfield and expose that South Carolina run defense in the game. While Harvin is a wide receiver, he runs better than most running backs and he will tear this South Carolina defense a part on Saturday. The Gators will use a rotation at running back to keep the guys fresh and allow Harvin to get into the passing game, but expect Harvin to get the majority of the carries.

The Gamecock offense will be lead by senior Blake Mitchell, who had been replaced by Freshman Chris Smelley earlier this season due to ineffectiveness. Mitchell's stats on the year are: 59.3% passing, 6 TD and 6 INT. The Gamecocks have thrown for the most yards of any team in the SEC and this will be a problem for the Gators. The weakest part of the Gators defense has been the young secondary. While they have been getting better as each week goes on, they are still young and Spurrier has a way of confusing young players with his schemes.

The pressure up front will need to come like it did last week to help out the secondary. The Gators front four has not been great this season, but last week they finally got some pressure up front and caused havoc in the backfield. Mike Pouncey switched from the offensive line to the defensive line and he not only clogged the middle to stop the run, but also was able to get up the field and help get pressure. The young Gators are stepped up last week and will need to again this week. Freshman Safety Major Wright will play with a smaller cast on his hand, but Kyle Jackson may get the start again over Wright. This would be a set back for the Gators because Jackson has been terrible all year long, while Wright has been great in run support and decent in coverage. If the front four can get pressure and the secondary can bend, but not break the gators will win this game.

PREDICTION: Gators 34 SC 24