Thursday, November 1, 2007

Gators Still in Good Position to Win SEC East

After the Gators lost to Georgia last week it seemed that the Gators hope for the rest of the season were dashed. The Gators owned their own destiny and blew it against a team they have rarely lost to in the past. It seemed that the Gators season and any hopes of a title were over, but I was wrong. Many of you know that I am an avid poster at the Fantasy Cafe and one of the posters there, Shoeless Joe, informed me that the Gators actually have a great chance of taking the SEC East crown. The best explanation is from him directly:
Right now here's how we stand...

UGA 4-2, 6-2
3-2, 5-3
South Carolina 3-3, 6-3
FL 3-3, 5-3
Kent 2-3, 6-3
2-3, 5-3

(This is all assuming we win out)

We still
play Vandy and South Carolina. So they're out with 4

Georgia has vs Auburn, and vs Kentucky left - Georgia's SEC
losses are to
Tenn and South Carolina, SEC east opponents, that means it
doesn't matter which
of those two teams they lose to.

still has vs Arkansas, vs Vandy, and @ Kentucky left. They have
to lose one
of those games. It doesn't matter which because they have 1 SEC East
and we have the head-to-head tiebreaker over them.

Kentucky has @
Vandy, @ Georgia, and vs Tennessee. They don't have to lose
any of those
games. Even if they win out it doesn't matter because they already
have two
SEC east losses.

So that means if Georgia and Tennessee each lose
exactly one game
(Tennessee cannot lose two or else Georgia would have the
head-to-head match up)
then we would have a three way tie. (If Georgia
losses two games and Tennessee
losses 1 or more then we win the east because
we have the head-to-head over
Tennessee.) The first tiebreaker is
head-to-head, which is a three way circle.
After that it goes to record
within the division. Since Georgia already has 2
SEC east losses (remember
Florida's losses are against 2 SEC-W, and 1 SEC-E)
they would be eliminated.
If at anytime in tie breaking procedures the tie has
been reduced to two
teams you refer back to head-to-head tie-breaker format in
which case
Florida has the tiebreaker over Tennessee.

We still actually have a
legit shot at winning the SEC-East. Both teams
have some tough games left
and I could definitely see it happening in this crazy
year in the SEC.
As you can see the Gators actually have a pretty good chance of being SEC champion. Georgia has two very rough games left, in Kentucky and Auburn. Auburn is a much better team than they were at the beginning of the year and took LSU to the wire, while Kentucky is a great team and actually beat LSU. Tennessee has three tough match ups left. Arkansas is better than their record shows, Vandy has played everyone tough, and Kentucky is a great team also. This year has been up and down. The Gators will need to make sure that they take care of their own business in the SEC, but with a misstep by both teams the Gators are back in it and have a great shot in the championship game. This week is tough with Vandy and they do have to go to South Carolina, but the season is not over and the team has a chance. The Gators need to get over the loss and keep their eye on the prize.

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