Sunday, June 3, 2007

Moves that may effect you

Free Agency not only changes the dynamic of the NFL, but also changes the dynamic of Fantasy Football. Players come and go and there stock rises or falls depending on the situation they go to. Last year Brees went to New Orleans and the stock of the Saints offensive players immediately went up. On the flip side sometimes a player will move teams to get more money, but the situation becomes worse and their fantasy stock drops. Here is a list of some of the key moves that may effect your fantasy draft.

Joey Harrington- At first this seemed like no news at all, but with Vick getting into more trouble and maybe jail time on the horizon Harrington maybe a viable bye week replacement. The Falcons have a new coach in Bobby Petrino who is very offensive minded and Vick honestly does not fit that system. Some of the young receivers are growing, Crumpler is a stud, and the combo of Dunn and Norwood is dynamite in the backfield. Watch the Vick situation closely and watch the wire as Harrington maybe a deep sleeper.

Joe Horn- Horn had one of his worst years last year due to injuries. I for one was very surprised to see him leave New Orleans where he is an icon in that community. Horn will add a much needed go to wide out for Vick if he is there or Harrington if Vick is gone. I say this, but there have been other vets that have gone to Atlanta to help out Vick and it just did not work out because of how Vick plays. I think the move to Atlanta hurts Horns value ultimately if Vick is the QB there. Horn was not going to be a high pick, but if Vick is throwing him the ball i think he takes more of a hit.

Willis McGahee- This may be one of the best moves for a running back in a long time. McGahee is a stud and has been stuck behind a pathetic offensive line and no quarterback since he has come into the NFL. Even though the Bills offense was stagnant last year he still managed to almost get to 1,000 yards. This year McGahee is behind one of the best offensive lines in the league and has a veteran quarterback behind center to take off some of the pressure. Even better, the Ravens style is made to play defense and run the football all day. McGahee's stock is rising and rising fast. Mcgahee is definitely a solid first rounder now.

Fraley, Steinbach, Jamal Lewis- I put the offensive linemen in with the running back here because it is a complete upgrade at that part of the ball for the Browns. After drafting Joe Thomas the Browns have totally re-done that offensive line and made it suitable for the AFC North and running the football to protect Frye or Quinn whoever the starter maybe. The biggest beneficiary is Jamal Lewis who came over from the Ravens after they got a younger stud back in Willis McGahee. Lewis who has been a rebound man for people every year might actually break through this year. The Browns organization has a new commitment to not only the run, but also to winning. This new offensive line will create holes and Lewis will be a nice sleeper back you can pick up for depth.

Dre Bly- Bly moves to Denver and becomes number 2 corner back to Champ Bailey. No one will want to throw on this secondary with Bailey, Bly, and Lynch back there. Bly will post some great numbers for IDP with teams wanting to throw away from Bailey. The Broncos defense got a huge upgrade not only with Bly, but also with their draft and should be a nice defense for you that most people have forgotten about.
Travis Henry- After trading Tatum Bell for Dre Bly the Broncos needed a running back and addressed it by getting Travis Henry. Henry spent last year with the Titans and put up some pretty nice numbers on an offense that was not that great. Lets face i, anyone can run for a 1,000 yards behind that Denver O-Line. Henry is a good back who had some great years in Buffalo, but was forced out by Willis McGahee. The combo of a good back and that offensive line could produce some nice fantasy numbers for you. The mocks i have seen so far have noticed this and he is going earlier than expected, but you can still get him early second and have a nice second back.

Tatum Bell- Bell was supposed to have that beak out year every year and because he was a Bronco he always had the potential to put up huge numbers, but it never happened. The Broncos and Bell have gone their separate ways and for Bell it may be for the better. Kevin Jones is going to be sidelined until at least half the season is over and the Lions coaches really like Bell. Bell is the perfect type of back for the Mike Martz offense and he could see some great numbers this year just as Kevin Jones was putting up last year until he got injured. The Lions coaches have been really happy with his performance so far and expect him to be the starter. He is looking like a late 3rd round really 4th round pick right now.

Matt Schaub- Had he taken over for Vick in Atlanta he would have much more value than he does in Houston right now. Schaub is a good QB, but has not been able to showcase his talent so he is an unknown. The other problem is that Houston has not been able to keep a QB on his feet since they started there franchise. Schuab is going to go throw growing pains and this year will be a big one for him. The Texans addressed the line in FA and the draft, but it is still going to take time. Schaub will be a nice keeper QB in late rounds and if he does get time to stand up and make throws look out becuase he will make them and be a nice option.
Ahman Green- Ahman Green is getting up in age and although he left the tough NFC North division he is now on a team that has not had an offensive line since inception. Good news is that as i said above the Texans are making strides to improve that line. Also, Head Coach Gary Kubiak is from the Mik Shannahan school of thought and wants to run the ball to set-up the play action pass. Running is key to Kubiak's offense and Green will be a big part of that. If the Texans have any sort of O-Line Green will be a nice option. For now he is about a 4th round pick.

New England
Randy Moss- Moss was not happy in Oakland and did not live up to his hype. Fantasy owners have felt burned by him for a couple of seasons now, but this year is the year he returns to that top form. This is Moss' last and best chance to win a ring and he will not pass it up. Rumors have it that he is running a 4.3 40 for the Patriots in his physical and is ready to get going. Brady will get him the ball and Bellicheck will keep him in check. I think Moss will be a top 5 WR this year when it is all said and done and you will be able to get him as a top 15 WR value. Moss is ready and will have a great year.
Donte Stallworth- He will be the #2 to Moss in New England and that could be a good thing. With double teams and more coverage going to Randy the speedster Stallworth could see a lot of single and busted coverage and make some great plays. New England likes to spread the ball around so he will get his touches and his shots. As long as he stays healthy he will be a nice option.

New York Jets
Thomas Jones- A great spot for both Jones and the Jets. Jones gets out of that dreaded RBBC situation and the jets finally get a running back that can run there system well. Mangini's system is the same that he ran in NE and they always wanted a RB who could run and catch out of the backfeild. In NE they had to combine Faulk with someone else, but in New York they have that person in one back, Thomas Jones. The Jets O-Line is good and will open holes. Mangini is dedicated to running the ball and Jones should put up some nice numbers this year, especially in a PPR league.

Dominick Rhodes- Talk about stock dropping. Rhodes went to a team that has no offensive line, another star RB in Jordan, a future stud back in Bush, a brand new HC in Kiffen, and brand new QB in Russell. I hope he is happy with his Super Bowl win because he is going to have little to no value this year. Rhodes is in a RBBC situation still on a worse team with NO offensive line. Right now he is going after the 10th and 11th rounds in the mocks i have seen and he deserves it. Don't waste your time.

San Francisco
Darrell Jackson- A true #1 wide out gets to finally be that #1. I had no clue why the Seahwaks would be so dumb as to trade him within the division, but they will regret it. Alex Smith is an up and coming QB and Gore is going to be a top 5 RB in the league. D-Jack becomes the number 1 target for Smith and he has Davis, Gore, and Lelie to take the pressure off. The Hawks felt they could let him go since they had Branch, but when healthy D-Jack is one of the top WR in the league. Look for him to have a nice year and be undervalued in your drafts.
Tampa Bay
Jeff Garcia- Bucs? Offense? HAHAHA, right? The Bucs finally addressed the offensive line that has been a thorn in there side for years, and got a QB perfectly suited for Grudens offense. The courtship of Garcia by Gruden has been for a couple of years now and Jon finally has his man on the team. Garcia knows the system and has run it before. The Boy Genius has also installed the shotgun and has got more athletes on offense. Don't get caught up in the competition for QB talk, Garcia will be the QB and he will have a nice year. Stovall is a good WR that no one knows about, Galloway still runs well, the Bucs added Jeremy Stevens to compliment Alex Smith at TE and Caddy will have some nice lanes with the new O-Line. Garcia is worth a flier as your second QB.


FanProphet said...

I like it. Good writing and accurate honest analysis of these players and their new situation. Keep this going. I'm going to add you to my blogroll if that's okay.


Adam Lewis said...